For over a century, rising life expectancy has given people hope that living past 100 could become the norm. But a new study suggests otherwise—most people will never reach the coveted centenarian milestone.
The research, published in Nature Aging, analyzed life expectancy trends across multiple countries and concluded that the realistic lifespan for most women will hover around 90 years, while men will likely reach just under 85. This projection contradicts the long-held belief that medical advancements would keep extending human life indefinitely.
According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the current average life expectancy in the U.S. stands at 80 years for women and 75 for men. While this is longer than past generations, the rapid improvements in lifespan seen in previous decades appear to be slowing down.
What the Data Says
The study’s findings were based on data from the U.S., Hong Kong, and eight other countries known for their long-lived populations—Australia, France, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, and Switzerland. While medical progress has helped extend life expectancy over the past century, researchers argue that we may be reaching the limits of how much we can artificially prolong human life.
“Most people alive today at older ages are living on time that was manufactured by medicine,” said lead author Dr. S. Jay Olshansky, a professor of epidemiology and biostatistics at the University of Illinois Chicago, in a press release.
He emphasized that while medicine has successfully helped people survive illnesses that would have been fatal in the past, these interventions don’t necessarily extend the human lifespan beyond a certain threshold. Instead, they tend to prolong the final years of life—often without ensuring those extra years are lived in good health.
The Harsh Truth: Living Longer Doesn’t Always Mean Living Better
One of the biggest takeaways from this research is that simply adding years to life may not be as beneficial as people assume. Olshansky argues that instead of trying to push human lifespans beyond their natural limits, the focus should shift to improving the quality of those years.
“We should now shift our focus to efforts that slow aging and extend healthspan,” he said.
Healthspan refers to the number of years a person lives in good health, free from debilitating diseases or chronic conditions. Many people live well into their 80s or 90s but spend their final decades battling illness, disability, or cognitive decline. If science can find ways to delay the onset of these age-related conditions, those extra years would be much more meaningful.
How Likely Is It to Reach 100?
The probability of reaching 100 years old remains low. According to the study, only about 5% of women and less than 2% of men will live to see their centennial birthday. Some countries, however, fare better than others. Hong Kong, for example, has the highest likelihood of centenarians, with nearly 13% of women and over 4% of men expected to live past 100.
These predictions carry major implications—not just for individuals planning their futures, but also for industries that rely on longevity data, such as insurance companies. Life expectancy estimates influence everything from retirement planning to healthcare costs, making these findings critical for policymakers and financial institutions.
The Future of Longevity: A New Revolution or a Dead End?
Despite the sobering conclusion that most people won’t live to 100, the study’s authors remain cautiously optimistic. They suggest that a “second longevity revolution” could be on the horizon, driven by scientific advancements in slowing the biological aging process.
“Given rapid advances now occurring in geroscience, there is reason to be optimistic that a second longevity revolution is approaching in the form of modern efforts to slow biological aging,” the study states.
Geroscience is an emerging field that focuses on the biological mechanisms of aging, with the goal of extending not just lifespan but healthspan as well. If researchers can find ways to slow down aging at a cellular level, future generations may not necessarily live much longer, but they could remain healthier for more of their lives.
Still, the authors caution that true radical life extension—where people regularly live well beyond 100—is unlikely to happen anytime soon. Until science can fundamentally alter the biological processes that drive aging, human longevity will likely remain within its current limits.
What This Means for You
For those hoping to see dramatic increases in human lifespan, this research might feel disappointing. However, it serves as a crucial reminder that longevity isn’t just about adding years—it’s about making those years count.
Rather than obsessing over living to 100, the focus should be on maintaining good health for as long as possible. This means prioritizing habits that have been consistently linked to a longer, healthier life:
- Eating a nutritious diet rich in whole foods, lean proteins, and healthy fats
- Staying physically active with regular exercise, strength training, and mobility work
- Managing stress levels through mindfulness, relaxation techniques, and strong social connections
- Getting enough sleep to support overall well-being and cognitive function
- Avoiding harmful habits like smoking, excessive drinking, and chronic stress
The takeaway? While medical science has come a long way in extending human life, the real goal should be extending quality life. If the future of longevity lies in slowing the aging process rather than simply delaying death, then the best investment anyone can make is in their health—starting today.
Will people in the future live past 100? Maybe. But what really matters is making sure the years we do have are lived well.
